Truckload Performance in October 2021
October 2021 - Transportation Market Report
What's new in the TL Space?
- Capacity remains tight with rejection rates holding relatively steady in October.
- M&A remains very active as Hub Group acquires Choptank Transport.
- Although rates are not expected to significantly rise in Q4, we do not project any material reprieve in terms of reduced costs or improved capacity.
Dry Van: LTT & CPM
There’s no indication of a let up in terms of volume for the balance of 2021. Import volume projects will remain extremely high and domestic manufacturing is expected to remain strong. With import volumes remaining strong, we would expect capacity to remain tight and costs to continue to rise for OTR volumes near major import gateway locations. The industrial sector could theoretically slow due to raw material/input shortages, but we do not expect that to make a material difference in terms of costs and capacity.
Key Takeaway:
Volumes are not expected to drop through 2021, and most likely at least Q2 2022. Capacity will remain further constrained in major markets located near major import gateways. The vaccine mandate is gaining traction and this could further negatively impact the trucking space.
Reefer: LTT & CPM
The reefer space remains extremely tight in terms of capacity with elevated rates. The Choptank acquisition by Hub Group further continues the M&A activity we have seen across all modes of transportation. Choptank is a broker who focuses primarily in the reefer space.
Key Takeaway:
We do not expect rates or capacity to improve in the balance of 2021.
Reefer OTVI & OTRI
The Reefer LTT remains significantly elevated vs. both 2020 and 2019. There’s no end in sight in terms of loosened capacity or a regression in rates.
Key Takeaway:
We do not expect rates or capacity to improve in the balance of 2021
Flatbed: LTT, CPM and FOTRI
Flatbed utilization will continue to remain strong. Housing Starts Privately‐owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,555,000. This is 1.6 percent (±11.4 percent)* below the revised August estimate of 1,580,000, but is 7.4 percent (±13.0 percent)* above the September 2020 rate of 1,448,000. Single‐family housing starts in September were at a rate of 1,080,000; this is virtually unchanged from (±8.4 percent)* the revised August figure of 1,080,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 467,000.
Key Takeaway:
We anticipate Flatbed costs and capacity to remain elevated and restricted for the coming months. Construction volumes should remain high (steel, lumber, equipment), the manufacturing sector continues to improve.
Domestic TL Length of Haul Rejections
This measures the Rejection rate at specific lengths of haul. We saw slight regressions in rejections for all lengths of haul.
Key Takeaway
The “Tweener” lane continues to have the highest Rejection rate by category. Previously, drivers could make the 450+ mile runs in a day. Due to HOS regulations, they are no longer able to do so. Ensure you are providing more than adequate lead time, and ensure appointments are set at both the shipper and receiver.
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