Transportation Market Update - January 2021 Review
In January what we saw was a mirroring of what we typically see in January. The big difference is that volumes remain significantly up.
We saw the traditional drop in volume around Christmas and New Year's. Then a couple of days after New Year's, once equipment gets repositioned, we saw those volumes spike back up. If you looked at the volume index, in one day, there was a 21% increase, and that's just carriers back on the road that equipment's in the right spot. There is still tons of demand out there. It has been very consistent throughout the month that volume indexes remained in the high 13,000.
The aftermath of the Holidays
We did not see any huge changes because of an unusual holiday season. There was a lot of talk about small package and a potential shipmageddon. I even encouraged people to do their buying early because of the potential for delivery issues due to the high volume. However, FedEx and UPS just released their holiday performance, and they were surprisingly very high. They were just a tick below 2019. But if you measure the noise, in 2019 people were just flat out upset about packages not being delivered. I think what 2020 did is reset our expectations. We all had a little bit more of an appetite or an understanding that yep, I am going to place this order. And there is a possibility that this may deliver on time. I just think there was a lot less noise around it just because of the environment that we all must live in.
UPS Freight Sold Off
The big news by far in January was that UPS sold off UPS Freight. Their LTL division is being spun off for $800 million to a Canadian based company called TFI. It was surprising but after you get by the initial shock and you took a step back and looked at it, it makes sense. Carol Tomé is the CEO over at UPS and has been very vocal about margin enhancements and return on invested capital. LTL carriers typically operate with razor-thin margins. The operating ratio for UPS Freight published for 2020 was about a 98. For every dollar that they spend, they make 2 cents.
Anything under a hundred means it is positive, anything over a hundred means your upside down. When you look at the acquisition of Overnight, which eventually became UPS Freight, they never invested heavily enough in terms of Technology. I feel like they never got those types of synergies they were hoping for. Meanwhile, TFI benefits, UPS Freight rate revenue was over 3 billion annually.
and they are getting this for $800 million. This will allow TFI to offer a true North American LTL solution. When I look at their portfolio of business, there was a gap in the LTL space, and this fits very nicely. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out, but what we're hearing is that it's going to be business as usual.
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