Truckload Performance in September 2021
August 2021 - Transportation Market Report
What's new in the TL Space?
- Capacity remains tight with rejection rates holding relatively steady in September.
- After the expected drop in volumes around the Labor Day holiday, freight quickly snapped back with a push towards the EOQ.
Dry Van: LTT & CPM
There’s no indication of a let up in terms of volume for the balance of 2021. Import volume projects will remain extremely high and domestic manufacturing is expected to remain strong. With import volumes remaining strong, we would expect capacity to remain tight and costs to continue to rise for OTR volumes near major import gateway locations. The industrial sector could theoretically slow due to raw material/input shortages, but we do not expect that to make a material difference in terms of costs and capacity.
Key Takeaway:
Volumes are not expected to drop through 2021, and most likely at least Q1 2022. Capacity will remain further constrained in major markets located near major import gateways. Due to this, expect rail providers to continue to “meter” volumes pushing potential IMDL volume back into the OTR market.
Reefer: LTT & CPM
The Reefer LTT remains significantly elevated vs. both 2020 and 2019. And after the expected drop in volume around the Labor Day holiday, those volumes snapped back and rejections continued to rise through the end of Q3.
Key Takeaway
Although the LTT ratio will drop slightly vs. August, we do not expect rates or capacity to improve in October.
Reefer OTVI & OTRI
The Reefer LTT remains significantly elevated vs. both 2020 and 2019. And after the expected drop in volume around the Labor Day holiday, those volumes snapped back and rejections continued to rise through the end of Q3.
Key Takeaway
Although the LTT ratio will drop slightly vs. August, we do not expect rates or capacity to improve in October.
Flatbed: LTT, CPM and FOTRI
Flatbed utilization will continue to remain strong. Relief efforts in the Gulf are on-going as a result of Hurricane Ida. Although new housing starts dropped from June to July, they increased in August. The price of lumber hit $1686/thousand board feet in May, but had returned to a more normal $459 in mid-September. However, since then it’s risen 38% to $634.
Key Takeaway
We anticipate Flatbed costs and capacity to remain elevated and restricted for the coming months. Construction volumes should remain high (steel, lumber, equipment), the manufacturing sector continues to improve.
Domestic TL Length of Haul Rejections
This measures the Rejection rate at specific lengths of haul. We saw slight regressions in rejections for all lengths of haul except long haul, which was essentially flat.
Key Takeaway
The “Tweener” lane continues to have the highest Rejection rate by category. Previously, drivers could make the 450+ mile runs in a day. Due to HOS regulations, they are no longer able to do so. Ensure you are providing more than adequate lead time, and ensure appointments are set at both the shipper and receiver.
Key Takeaway:
Although rates are not expected to significantly rise in Q4, we do not project any material reprieve in terms of reduced costs or improved capacity.
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