Transportation Market Update - February 2021 Review
The word of the month was weather. When 70% of the country is on a severe weather alert, it impacts 100% of the country.
Nowhere was the connected nature of the freight market more explained than in how the tender volume index and tender rejection index performed. In a regular market, the indexes are connected where when one goes up the other follows. However, what we saw at the end of February was the tender volumes going down, but the rejection index stayed up. What that means is the less-than-truckload (LTL) and truckload (TL) will have a capacity issue when the impacted areas open. While the closures seem like something that would only impact the locations, there is a downhill effect that touches everyone. At the time of this blog, there was a 20% increase in the tender volume index which will impact the rejection index.
Why is weather disruptive to freight markets?
Disruptive weather can impact freight modes in unique ways. In LTL, the disruption comes from a terminal being closed. The rule of thumb is that for every day a terminal is closed, it takes another two days to get caught up. Pickups are scheduled out and deliveries will still need to happen, so when things are shut down it means the freight is still stuck in the terminal. Truckload, on the other hand, has individual drivers taking themselves off the road due to the uncertainty of the situation. TL drivers work to never drive empty miles therefore driving into a location that could face closures for an extended period is not worth it for most companies.
How should you forecast this type of disruption?
We think the best course of action if you oversee P&L for sales is to hedge for these events. We have seen serve weather-related events occurring often and becoming the new normal. Locations like the gulf coast and Texas are prone to these disruptions and as we have showcased, what effects one location in logistics can have a massive ripple effect.
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