Freight Market Indicators in February 2021
February 2021 - Transportation Market Report
Leading Indicator: Purchasing Managers Index
For the 8th month in a row, the purchasing managers' index came in positive. As a reminder, anything above 50% in the PMI is considered positive and indicates an expansionary economy. However, compared to the previous month it came down almost 3%. Some of the drop is tied to productivity in the manufacturing sector. Fewer people that are available to work in a given environment means less output and less productivity. The backlog of new orders continues to rise and the inventory at retail is at still historic lows. Therefore, there is no sign of this letting up anytime soon.
We are not anticipating any relief to start occurring until Q3 when more vaccinations allow for a shift in buying patterns.
Trailing Indicator: Fuel Prices
Fuel has continued to rise for 19 consecutive weeks at the time of this blog. As a higher percentage of the population gets vaccinated, more consumer spending will transition from Goods to Services (travel/vacations, sporting events, restaurants, etc.). As travel opens (and more people return to the office), consumption of fuel will increase sharply. Refineries will resume more ‘normal’ production, and the price of fuel will undoubtedly increase. The new Administration in the White House is also more favorable to environmental focused legislation, which could hurt the price of fuel. Keep your finance teams informed on these developments and this outlook. We anticipate an increase in the cost of fuel in 2021, but do not expect it to return to January 2020 levels.
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